1月9日訊——投資銀行Varengold研究團隊周五(1月9日)表示，歐元兌美元在1.1766獲得支撐，但仍有進一步下跌的可能。
11月德國工業訂單數據下降以及歐元區消費者通脹預期下滑都對歐元產生利空影響，同時美國經濟數據的利好助漲了歐元的跌勢，歐元兌美元在連續下跌5日後已經到了9年來的低位。市場對於歐洲央行推出貨幣寬鬆政策的預期不斷升溫以及美元在就業數據公布前(就業數據可能堅定美聯儲加息信心)的堅挺走勢都迫使歐元向9年來的新低滑落。
歐洲央行主席德拉基(Mario Draghi)表示，如果覺得有必要，歐洲央行管理委員會隨時都可以采取非常規手段遏製長期低通脹的局面。
Varengold認為，投資者對於歐洲央行最快在本月推出購買歐元區主權債務的預期不斷升溫，導致周四歐元收在1.1792，甚至一度跌至1.1754的低點。自從去年6月以來，歐元兌美元就一直處於下跌走勢。而且歐元的下跌趨勢很難被打破，因此今天剩餘交易時間內繼續看跌歐元兌美元的走勢。
Varengold表示，歐元目前跌至1.1766的支撐位。雖然目前的支撐對歐元有效，同時各個指標也顯示歐元有超賣跡象，但是歐元仍有進一步下跌的可能。
北京時間16:58，歐元兌美元報1.1802/04，漲幅0.12%。
According to The Varengold Bank Research Team, the support at 1.1766 is currently holding the pair well but a further decline is likely for EUR/USD.
“A slump in German industrial orders in November and a drop in euro zone consumer inflation expectations reinforced bearish views of the euro as the U.S. data also helped push the single currency to a nine-year low, for a fifth day of losses. The euro wallowed near a nine-year low on Friday on growing expectations the European Central Bank will embark on quantitative easing, while the dollar held firm before U.S. jobs data that could cement the case for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve.”
“ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank's Governing Council stands ready to take unconventional measures if needed to stem a prolonged period of low inflation."
"The euro stood at $1.1792, having hit $1.1754 on Thursday as traders grew more convinced that the ECB might start buying euro zone sovereign debt as soon as this month.”
“Since June the bears took control over this currency pair and the euro experienced a sharp decline versus the USD. As we already said on Monday this week, the dowfall of the euro seems hard to break and thus we saw a further decline of the currency during the last trading sessions."
"The EUR has now dropped to the support level of 1.1766. At the moment the support level seems to hold but a further decline may be likely although the indicators show that the euro is highly oversold.”
文章来源于汇通网
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